Interview with Dr. Sudarshana Ramaraju, Founder Director of Nabhah Cosmos Foundation

Sustainability means just the same as it means on the ground – an uninterrupted continuity of status and services of an asset. If it means environmental services on the planet, it just means services from the assets in space. So, in general, space sustainability refers to the health of space assets, maintenance of them without a depreciative damage, protection from irreversible damage and continuity of services on which humanity depends.

Yes, satellites are robust systems that are designed to serve for 5 to 8 years. But space environment is not as silent and peaceful as one imagines. It is fraught with immense risks. As of now there are tens of thousands of satellites in low earth orbit, spinning around the world at breakneck speeds of about 8 km per second, which is about 28,000 kmph. And the numbers are likely to double every year exponentially. We are also increasingly becoming space services-based society. And in those low earth orbits, mission ended satellites, defunct satellites, rocket castaways, broken parts of man-made artefacts that have resulted from collisions and natural asteroid objects are also circulating in the same breakneck speed. They are generally termed as space debris, which can vary from a centimetre in size to several meters in size. And most of them are not managed or controlled. And they pose a constant threat of collision to useful space objects like functioning satellites.

Theoretically, yes. A 5 cm object in the Low Earth Orbit is travelling at 28,000 Kmph speed, which is over 8 kms per second. A bullet travels at just 350 meters per second. So, the debris is more than 25 times faster than a bullet. As for the energy or power contained in a 5 cm object flying at 8 kms per second in space, it is equivalent to 1.3 kg TNT, which is about 6 to 8 grenades or an artillery shell, whereas a bullet is only 0.2 grams TNT. So, a 5 cm object in space going at that speed can kill several people and pulverise a huge building of the size of a palace.

But all that is in principle. Because, a rogue object of 5 cm size will not reach the ground if it escapes space and enters earth system. It will burn out due to aerothermal heating in the upper atmosphere. It won’t survive even to some 50 kms above the ground, which can be 5 times higher than the flight of airplanes. And a 5 cm object completely burns out and vapourises. It needs a minimum of 50 cms size and about 50 kilos or more for very small chunks of that to reach the land and hit us. Usually, the ones that fall to the ground are tons in size in space. If defying the laws of physics, the 5 cm size objects or less than that size would reach the land surface, there would not be organic evolution of megafauna at all. Every life would have been killed many times over by the particle shower from space in the last 4 billion years of earth history. Gravity and atmosphere have protected evolution on this planet.

And every day, more than 100 tons of micro meteorites and space debris material enters earth’s gravity but none of it reaches the ground. They all vapourise in the high upper atmosphere much above the height the airplanes fly. If even 100 particles of 5 cm were to reach the land per day, it would be something like 130 Kg of TNT power, which is equivalent to a major battlefield scenario. And imagine that happening for over 4 billion years of earth history, every day. Nothing would survive.

Yes. There are millions of debris particles in space. We normally classify them as above 10 cms and below that size, depending upon the ease of detecting them from the ground and monitoring them. And as we understand today, there are tens of thousands of debris material over the size of 10 cms and millions of them below that size. Generally, the over 10 cms sized material is detected. That increases the risk of the unknown.

Exactly. Collision risk, right from the stage of launching a satellite to maintaining it in the orbit throughout its lifetime is very real. And the risk from the unknown is almost like crossing a busy highway blindfolded. And unfortunately, we have become a society that is immensely dependent on satellites for a plethora of functions like navigation, communication, disaster early warning, natural resource estimating, weather forecasting and many such applications. We cannot afford to lose satellite services due to collision by space debris.

Correct. Space scientists use a term called Kessler’s Syndrome, which builds scenarios of a cascading effect of debris production by collision. With the speed and power that these debris material possess, a collision with a satellite can produce a cloud of debris and each particle product of that collision would inherit the speed and power of the mother debris and multiply the risk. Kessler’s syndrome is not fictional but is real. And it is possible that due to this cascading effect, we might begin losing space assets systematically and dramatically in the coming decades. And if we lose many satellites, that’s a loss of continuity of space-based services and production of more volumes of debris. Estimates of loss vary from hundreds of billions of US dollars to almost total disruption of civilizational services. This being a possibility, it is very difficult to be optimistic of the continuity of civilizational services in future, if we do not act today.

The whole aspiration of this issue is to take control of the situation, which is easily said than done. First of all, we need to build/enhance science and technology to track the space debris and chart their orbital dynamics. Then we need to compute the collision possibilities. Prediction of collision and collision avoidance are done at a basic level as of now with scanty data, but we need to enhance this to a wider dimension. Tracking of debris from the ground as well as from dedicated satellites in space is a challenge. We need to invest in the science and technologies of collision avoidance, autonomous navigation of the satellites, mitigation of the debris menace, recycling of materials in space and a number of such fundamental dimensions. The space law, standard operating procedures and an international debris damage mitigation regulatory framework are in a nascent stage and need to be strengthened. So, this requires enormous amount of work through cooperation of various agencies, experts, thinkers, decision makers and technologists in a coordinated and concerted manner.

Yes. Nabhah is a non-profit Foundation with a flagship mission called Swacch Aakash, which literally means CLEAN SKY. Swacch Aakash is a framework of six space sustainability dimensions, namely optimising ground-based tracking capabilities, attempting similar space based tracking capabilities, building a robust space debris database, exploring autonomous decision making capabilities by the satellites in space, widening the space debris impact mitigation efforts and strengthening a regulatory framework.

Nabhah strongly believes that this is impossible to achieve through the efforts of one institution. The problem is already expanding and will soon be enormous. The speed at which Kessler’s Syndrome operates could be an order of magnitude higher than the speed at which an individual institutional programme can develop and operate. Let me draw a parallel with the issue of climate change here to demonstrate the point. Climate change issue is being addressed by the world by a large matrix of international conventions, national programmes, dedicated institutions, CSR fraternity, NGOs, individual experts, think tanks, financial institutions, international institutions et al. Yet, the milestones are hard to reach and messages of apocalypse are flying. The issue of space debris has a similar speed of cumulative and exponential effect. But we do not have even 10 percent of matching international efforts to address the issue. Therefore, Nabhah thinks that there is a huge mismatch between mankind’s current potential to address the issue of space debris and the expansion potential of the space debris impacts. The worst-case scenario is that civilization could go back by 70 years within decades if the space based services cannot be sustained.

Therefore, Nabhah believes in “national convergence”. Through this approach, Nabhah wants to collate the efforts of institutions, industry and individuals and bring to the same platform of devotion to the cause, the resources as available in the country. Nabhah has already enlisted the services and contributions of highly experienced and distinguished experts. National Convergence of resources, expertise, efforts, experiences and enthusiasm is what Nabhah wishes to achieve. This will be necessary to build a matching speed and integrated efforts to address the over hanging cloud of the issue.

Nabhah draws strength from a number of entities in ‘national convergence’ that it has firmly initiated. Nabhah elaborated its concept and progress in the beginning of the year to ISRO’s In-SPACe in the presence of some very distinguished space scientists of the land. ISRO-In-SPACe has always supported the idea ever since and has invited to lead this initiative through an ISRO-Nabhah National Workshop. India’s largest and most prestigious Space Industry Association (SIA) has already signed an MoU with Nabhah and has requested to address India Space Conclave 2025. Nabhah has given keynote addresses around the country in the Universities and IITs and has increased awareness on the issue. Some corporate entities have shown keen interest to associate themselves with Nabhah. Nabhah already has an Advisory Board consisting of some eminent personalities from Indian space horizon. Nabhah has just begun its journey this year but a tremendous amount of recognition has come its way. And the vision of Nabhah has been authenticated by a number of entities in the forefront of Indian space domain.

Nabhah is a non-profit dedication of efforts to protect the space assets and space services of the nation. We invite all conscience keeping entities to associate with our mission.

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) sector, may not have sufficiently appreciated & focused on the issue of space debris yet, but there is no time to lose now. The mission of Nabhah stands strengthened by strategic CSR framework, & Nabhah is evolving as a national responsibility. Therefore, it will be helpful for anyone with a relevant resource to contribute to the efforts of Nabhah to safeguard the national interests in space and support towards its sustainability.

Nabhah appeals to INDIA INC., for potential & strategic CSR partnership to save India’s space assets and services through the mission of Swacch Aakash.

We are grateful for the early support and encouragement extended by IGPL, Focal Ventures, Bharat Golf, and Excelsoft Technologies in these foundational days of establishing our vision and mission. Their contributions are helping accelerate Nabhah’s commitment toward ensuring a safe and sustainable space environment for future generations.